A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
