Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
